As the US presidential election approaches, there is a visible discussion about the race on social media, particularly after Donald Trump’s victory at the US Supreme Court on March 4, which enabled his candidacy. The School of Communication at FGV (FGV ECMI) conducted a study about this debate – especially on its similarities to the Brazilian political context – between February 5 and March 5 on X, Facebook and Instagram.
The posts with the greatest reach were those establishing a relationship between what happened in the USA and in Brazil regarding the Jair Bolsonaro administration and claiming that, in both cases, there was interference of the legal system, arguing that the law has been “biased” and “persecutory”. According to the debate on social media, Trump’s case is allegedly a sign of strengthened support for Bolsonaro. Some key players following this narrative stood out, such as Federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) and the digital influencer Paulo Figueiredo – both politicians allegedly had a conversation with the former US president, who stated that Brazil would be a “priority” in his administration.
The analysis also measured the polarization level regarding this issue on X. There was a large presence of pro-Trump groups in the national debate – accounting for 66.9% of the profiles and 81.3% of the interactions –, who argued that the court decision was an achievement against the left and paved the way for Trump’s victory in the election. On Facebook and Instagram, there were claims of persecution by a part of the Federal Government, the media and the Brazilian legal system against Bolsonaro’s political allies and supporters. To intensify this narrative at a global level, there were mentions to the election of Javier Milei in Argentina, and claims that Donald Trump’s presidency could increase the political efforts to fight an alleged threat against the right.
On the other hand, publications on the left had a low impact on the debate, with only 20.3% of the profiles and 12.9% of the interactions within a group formed by progressive influencers, journalists and media outlets. The focus in this group was on the conflict between Israel and Palestine, including the Biden administration's position on the issue and its low approval rating. Disinformation was also a key topic, particularly regarding the news that Trump supporters used artificial intelligence to create images in order to convince black voters to vote for the American candidate.